Wednesday, October 21, 2020

GOP hopes a pair of Asian American women can flip California's Orange County

Young Kim, left and Michelle Steel, GOP congressional hopefuls in Orange County

ANALYSIS

For decades, Orange County has been a Republican island in a sea of blue. In a dramatic turnaround, in the 2018 midterms the GOP lost the four Congressional seats representing the Southern California county in a Democratic tidal wave.

In response to their huge defeat in 2018, Republicans are fighting back with two Asian American candidates as their vanguard with the hope of energizing the conservatives among Asian Americans.

Former state Assembly member Young Kim is challenging Rep. Gill Cisneros in a rematch of 2018 for the 39th Congressional District, Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel is running against U.S. Rep. Harley Rouda, D-Newport Beach for District 48. 

The other two Orange County congressional districts are District 45 held by Democrat Rep. Katie Porter and District 46, which is held by Democrat Rep. Lou Correa.

Orange County, a once a bastion of conservatism, fell to the Democrats when Democrats repulsed by Donald Trump's policies and anti-California sentiments, inspired Democrats to flock to the polls in 2018. However, Orange County's results could not have happened if a good portion of usually Republican voters had not voted for Democratic newcomers over the better established Republican candidates.

"My candidacy, I think it would really excite the base, excite the Asian American community," Kim said. Her district is probably the tightest of the four Orange County districts.

A huge migration of first-generation immigrants from Asia since the 1990s helped augment the white conservatives who dominated the county's voting rolls for so long.

Asian Americans are California's fastest-growing electorate, and in Orange County more than 400,000 are eligible to vote.

"Little Saigon" the cultural center of the Vietnamese American community is located in Orange County. Vietnamese American voters, most of whom fled when South Vietnam fell to North Vietnam, have historically gone Republican because they believe the GOP is more anti-communist than the Democrats.

Breaking Down Orange County by Race

What has happened is that the children of those refugees have grown up in the U.S. and like their peers of other ethnic groups, are more progressive in their political positions.

Filipino American Republicans are particularly active in the county, having recently held a loud car caravan through Asian American neighborhoods and business districts that drew media attention.

Korean American entrepreneurs who fled Los Angeles' Koreatown after the Rodney King riots for the perceived safety of the suburbs established mom-and-pop businesses in the communities.


In California's "jungle" primary last March 3, Kim beat Cisneros by more than 2,000 votes, with 48.4% of the vote. The two top vote-getters qualified to run against each other this November.

But it is also known that Democrats are likely to skip the midterms while Republicans can depend on their voters to turn out. This November, with a future President on the line, Democrats will likely flock to the polls. That doesn't bode well for Republicans in California, which sent only seven Republicans to Congress. The state's other 45 members of Concgress are Democrats.

Additionally, Asian Americans of all ages are trending Democratic since Trump's election, according to AAPI Data. Democrats' positions on jobs, health care, education, environment and gun control are more in line with the younger generation's values  while the Dems' policies on immigration and healthcare attract the elders.

That bodes well for first-term Congressmember Cisneros, even though he has been tagged as "vulnerable" against the formidable Kim. He is not taking the Asian American vote for granted.

He points out that his staff in his Washington, D.C. and Fullerton offices can speak Mandarin, Korean and Tagalog. His campaign manager-turned-chief of staff is of Chinese descent, while his spokesman is Filipino American.

"We're going to continue to work hard to make sure that we get them out to vote and let them know that I'm going to be the one in Washington who's going to really represent them and their values," the Latino American representative told LAist.

If Cisneros candidacy represents the new Orange County, Kim represents the Old Guard. As an aide to Rep. Ed Royce and a legislator in Sacramento, Kim has the political experience to challenge Cisneros but the albatross around her neck is the Republican Party itself.

The road to Washington is a bit rockier for Steel. Her candidacy has been dogged by revelations that her husband, Shawn Steel, is at the center of a scandal for his work to allegedly open doors for Chinese foreign nationals to funnel hundreds of thousands of dollars in political donations to Trump and the RNC’s reelection efforts.

In addition, her fellow Orange County Supervisors have accused her of using public funds for campaigning and question the award of a 35-year contract to one of her biggest donors.

Steel also has the dubious distinction of being the target of the nation's first Vietnamese language political ad put up by the Democrats. The 30-second ad accuses the candidate of corruption and “rampant misconduct,” and airs on the Asian cable outlet VietFaceTV as part of the Democrats' initial $45,000 ad buy.


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