Tuesday, October 27, 2020

AAPI voters could play a critical role in Presidential election


UPDATED Oct. 29, 1:45 p.m. to include Georgia developments.

It is a given that Asian American voters will have an impact in states like Hawaii, California, Nevada and New York where their numbers are large enough to determine election outcomes. 

But Asian Americans could also play pivotal roles in next week's elections in states outside of those population hubs. The Asian American populations in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona have sprouted significantly since the 2010 Census.

"If you take a look at the numbers of all the eligible AAPI voters in almost all of our battleground states, (they) outnumber the number of votes that we lost by (four years ago), so our community should feel proud and empowered," said Congresswoman Grace Meng, D-NY, in a virtual town hall meeting organized by a coalition of affinity groups supporting Biden, AAPIs for Biden.

Asian Americans, while not a large share of the electorate nationally, could swing the outcome of many individual congressional races. AAPI make up more than 10% of the voting-age population in 45 House districts, according to Census estimates compiled by AAPI Data.

While Congressional districts with the highest tally of Asian-American voters are mostly found in California, increasingly, the impact of AAPI votes are being felt in districts and states not usually linked to AAPI centers.

AAPI are moving away from the urban centers in California, New York City and Chicago, said Natalie Masuoka, a political scientist at UCLA. “The growth of Asian America really is in the suburbs.”

Asian Americans are dispersing across the entire country away from Hawaii and California and moving to Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina—the states with the fastest-growing populations. The number of Asian American residents in Florida and Pennsylvania has grown by more than 80% since 2010. South Asians are flocking to  Texas, where estimates show that the number of eligible Asian American voters rose by at least 40% between 2012 and 2018.

PENNSYLVANIA

Both parties see Pennsylvania as a key state and have been spending time and resources there. 

Pennsylvania's Asian American population has exploded by 99 percent since 2000, according to data compiled by APIAVote, a nonpartisan group. About 251,000 AAPI voters are spread across that state and they are getting noticed. Indian and Chinese Americans are the largest ethnic groups.

"When we first started, very few Asian organizations wanted to even do this work or even understood that they were allowed to do nonpartisan voter registration, voter education, get-out-the-vote activities," APIA Vote's Christine Chen told NBC News. "It's so exciting to see in 2020 not only do we have more organizations, but they're also organizing themselves as a coalition and working together."

In 2016, "Donald Trump [won] by 44,000 votes in the state of Pennsylvania," says Helen Gym, the first Asian American woman to serve on the Philadelphia City Council. Four years later, Gym, a Biden supporter, now says, "AAPIs are the margin of victory in Pennsylvania."

The presence of U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, an Indian American, as Biden's running mate, could boost turnout among AAPI voters. Also on the ballot is Nina Ahmad, who was born in Bangladesh, who is running for state auditor general.

Increasing AAPI voter turnout can help the largely immigrant community play a bigger role in their communities beyond politics. "I believe Asian Americans can play a bigger role if we can break down the language barrier for some of our older residents or recent immigrants," said state Rep. Patty Kim, the first Asian American to serve in the Pennsylvania House.

GEORGIA

Joe Biden spent most of Tuesday in Georgia, trying to swing the state from Trump to the Democrats.. 

Asian Americans “literally will make up the margins of victory in key races across our battlefield,” said U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos, chairwoman of the DCCC, in a press conference. Georgia's Republicans and Democrats have realized that, and major efforts are underway to reach the once-ignored demographic group.

“There’s a real misconception that Asian Americans don’t vote, and that’s becoming increasingly not true, especially as you have new voters coming on,” said Stephanie Cho, executive director of Asian Americans Advancing Justice Atlanta, a nonpartisan nonprofi. 

"It’s critical for candidates, critical for parties, critical for anyone who does nonpartisan work to pay attention,” she told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Today (Oct. 29) the #DearGeorgia, It’s Time campaign led by Asian Americans Advancing Justice-Atlanta (Advancing Justice-Atlanta) and supported by more than 30 voting rights organizations announced new in-language voting resources including officially translated ballots in Korean and Spanish that are available immediately. DeKalb County becomes the first county in Georgia to offer an officially translated ballot in an Asian language, and in doing so, also becomes the first county to voluntarily take steps beyond those required by the federal Voting Rights Act to expand meaningful language access.

Stephanie Cho, Executive Director of Advancing Justice-Atlanta, shared, “Today’s announcement marks a turning point for our fight to strengthen voting rights, ensuring that more Georgians will be welcomed and included in our democracy. We are moving from defense to offense. As we continue to protect voting rights, we will also focus our efforts to increase language access for Georgia’s more than 165,000 Limited English Proficient (LEP) voters.

Asian American voters make up only 2.5% of Georgia’s active registered voters, or about 193,000, so their votes will be key in races like the 7th Congressional District. In Gwinnett, where a quarter of the state’s Asian American population lives and where they make up 9.5% of registered voters.

“A lot of people in the state were not being talked to because we were not in a swing state,” said Aisha Yaqoob Mahmood, director of the Asian American Advocacy Fund told the AJC. “Asian American communities and immigrant communities were not considered a powerful voting bloc in 2016... But we have a massive voter population in key areas.”

“Before the vice presidential nomination, I didn’t feel as much excitement about the race as I did after the nomination of Kamala Harris,” said Mahmood. “I am thoroughly surprised to see how many Indian Americans are getting involved, volunteering with us or with campaigns. It’s a level of excitement in that particular community I haven’t seen before.”

“Representation matters, and especially for immigrant communities,” said state Rep. Sam Park, a second generation Korean American Democrat who represents parts of Lawrenceville and Suwanee. He told the AJC, “When they see themselves reflected in leadership, it’s a reminder that the American dream is alive and well, and if I can do it, so can they. It also sends a message that our government is inclusive, and our leadership is inclusive, and gives them incentive to participate in our democracy.”

From left: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Michigan Gov. Whitmer and Sen. Cory Booker.

MICHIGAN

Biden will be joined with President Barack Obama on Saturday when they will campaig in Michigan, traditionally a Democratic stronghold. In 2016, the state went to Trump. 

"What Democrats are trying to do and need to do if they're trying to be successful in the mid-terms and in the future is reach voters who don't look necessarily like a traditionally Democratic voter," said Adam Joseph, who canvassed with SAMOSA a group formed after 2016 to increase voting by Indian Americans.

Joseph was also the communications director for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed's gubernatorial campaign. El-Sayed came in second to Gretchen Whitmer in the primaries.

"What I think is amazing about what's happening here is that these are Indian Americans knocking Indian doors," he.told. "This is the community ... engaging with itself."


The largest AAPI ethnic groups in Michigan include: Indian (112,368), Chinese (67,602), Filipino (40,847), Korean (32,893), and Japanese (20,883). From 2010 to 2016, the number of eligible AAPI voters in Michigan grew 31%. This compares to a 3% growth rate for the statewide eligible voting population between 2010 to 2016, according to AAPI Data.

The largest concentration of Asian Americans, about 44%, are in Detroit and it's suburbs, says AAPI Data.

In 2016, Truimp beat Hillary Clinton by only 10,704 votes, In that election, Asian American turnout was abysmal. AAPI activists believe that if AAPI voters had turned out in numbers comparable to the state average, Clinton could have won the state, and possibly the election.

"Our goal is to get people from our community out to vote. ...We felt that we are best equipped to do that because we are from the same community." says Shuvra Das, co-founder of SAMOSA. Indian Americans lean heavily towards the Democrats.

Harris has the Indian American community excited and hope to take part in a history-making vote. Trump's immigration policies which generally limited change of visas for workers and students has become a major issue for the largely immigrant community.

NORTH CAROLINA

Since 2012 the number of Asian Americans eligible to vote in North Carolina grew 55 percent, more than six times the statewide growth rate, according to the nonprofit Asian and Pacific Islander American vote.

In 2016, only about 57% of Asian American voted compared to the overall turnout of 69%.

“I think sometimes when people talk about Asian Americans as not as engaged, they don’t care about these things, I think that’s not necessarily true," says Phian Tran, the voting engagement director for North Carolina Asian Americans Together (NCAAT). "Thinking about the context of Asian American folks coming over and immigrating here, there are so many things to worry about.”

NCAAT recently released it's first poll of voter attitudes among North Carolina’s Asian American population.

“In the polling that we conducted we found that 59% of respondents to our polls say that health access including Medicare for all is among one of their most important public health priorities,” explains Ricky Leung, Senior Director of Programs.

The group says there are about 209,000 Asian American voters in the state, enough to influence the results of this year’s election.

For a democracy to function best, Tran says your civic duty can’t stop at the ballot box. “We cant just vote and say 'my job is done, I've fixed the world.' I don’t believe voting is the thing that’ll change and fix everything, but it’s a great step," he says.

Though Asian Americans make up just 3.5% of the state’s electorate, NCAAT says greater participation could’ve swayed some congressional races in 2016.

TEXAS

Until recently, Texas was not considered a battleground state. This Friday, the last day for early voting in Texas, Kamala Harris will be campaigning in the Lone Star state where she given a wildly enthusiastic welcome when she visited during her Primary campaign. 

Harris' visit is historic as it marks the first time a Democratic vice presidential candidate has campaigned in Texas since 1988 when Lloyd Bentsen, a native Texan was the ticket with Michael Dukakis.

Harris' multi-city visit is a sign that the Democrats think that their ticket could pull an upset in Texas, which has been in the GOP's hip pocket for several presidential cycles. If Biden-Harris could capture the state's 38 electoral votes, it would be a fatal blow to the Trump campaign.


In the run-up to Nov. 3, Texas Democratic Party’s AAPI Caucus, AAPIs for Biden and the Asian American Democrats of Texas have been conducting a campaign to celebrate and mobilize AAPI voters, running bilingual ads on radio, TV and ethnic media.

Biden is not the only Democrat that would benefit if Texas was to turn blue. There are sizable Asian American communities in Texas districts that hold an outsized importance this year. Democrats are hopeful that they can flip nine seats in the state House to gain a majority in the lower chamber ahead of next year’s legislative session. Key among those efforts are nine seats held by Republicans in which former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, received more votes than U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in 2018. In two-thirds of those districts, the Asian share of the population is more than double the statewide share, according to the Texas Tribune. 

“There are some districts where there’s a significant enough level of organization and voters that can make a difference if it’s a matter of turnout and the races are close enough,” said Madeline Hsu, a history professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

Multiple U.S. House seats targeted by Democrats have large Asian American populations, too.

Perhaps the district where the impact of the targeted political campaigning is most clear is the 22nd Congressional District, where Indian AmericanSri Preston Kulkarni is running against Republican Troy Nehls for the seat being vacated by Republican Congressmember Pete Olson.

Kulkarni says his campaign is engaging with voters in 27 different languages in the diverse Fort Bend County district, once a conservative stronghold. The incumbent squeaked a win in 2018 against Kulkarni by only 5 percentage points. After Olson announced he wouldn’t seek reelection in 2020, Democrats identified the seat as one of their top targets.

“The Asian American voters my campaign is talking to every day are ready and enthusiastic for more representation in this country’s halls of power,” Kulkarni told the Texas Tribune. “I think the rise in Asian American turnout is a great sign for our race. These are voters who aren’t overly partisan, they just want reasonable leadership who will fight for them in Congress, rather than an ideology or a political party.”

Also benefitting by the Harris visit and the Democrats' push in Texas is Filipino American candidate Gina Ortiz Jones, running to fill the seat in Congressional District 23, one of the biggest districts in the nation, running along the Texas-Mexico border. Ortiz Jones received an early endorsement from Kamala Harris.

She has a 74% chance of winning the seat, according to Five Thirty-eight, the nonpartisan poll aggregation site. If she were to win, Ortize Jones would be the first openly Lesbian AAPI member of Congress.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A word of caution, this is news sprinkled with opinion. Readers are encouraged to seek multiple news sources to formulate their own positions. 

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