OPINION
The constantly shifting deadline for the U.S. Census is up in the air again but for all intents and purposes, today (Oct. 15) is probably the last day to respond to the decennial head count.
The Supreme Court on Tuesday (Oct. 14) showed what a Trump-controlled court can look like when it backed an administration request to close down Census field operations by "pausing" the actual door-knocking enumeration while federal courts decide what the actual deadline will be.The 2020 Census is already the most contentious and controversial head count in modern history and order to stop counting will likely produce the most inaccurate Census in recent memory.
YOU COUNT: If you haven't already responded to the Census questionnaire, now is the time to do so. It only takes minutes from your day. You can still respond online.The Court’s one-paragraph order offers no explanation of why a majority of the justices chose to end the count. It doesn’t even purport to be the final word in this litigation. Rather, the Court’s order ending the count merely stays the lower court’s order while this case is fully considered by an appeals court and then potentially appealed to the justices again. By the time this occurs, no matter what the Court decides, the Census is effectively over because it takes time to ramp up field operations again.
The usually non-partisan Census became a political football -- punted and fumbled -- as the Trump administration turned it into a Republican strategy to take Congressional seats away from Democrats.
After the administration was unsuccessful in ending the Census on it's original deadline of Sept. 30 and a federal court ordered the deadline be extended to Oct. 31 because the coronavirus lockdown prevented workers from knocking on the doors of those households who did not respond by mail, phone or online.
Government attorneys appealed to the Supreme Court which issued an emergency order late Tuesday (Oct. 13) to pause all outreach efforts while the lower courts try to settle the matter.
As the Supreme Court overruled a California court order moving the deadline to Oct. 31, all outreach efforts that include going door-to-door to halt.
While most of the decennial head count has been completed, the extra effort of going to the households the historically hard-to-count populations that include immigrants, legal and undocumented, Asian American, Latino and Black households.
The fact that marginalized people who are hesitant to be noticed by government are traditionally Democrats was not lost on Republicans.
Democratic members of Congress are the one's most likely to suffer if there is an undercount of the hard-to-count populations. Democratic strongholds such as California, Hawaii, Nevada, Illinois, New York and New Jersey could lose political representation. Not coincidentally, these are the same states that have opposed Trump policies and challenged them in court. In typical Trump fashion, his administration has sought ways to "punish" those states by withholding or adding additional hoops for them to access federal funds for infrastructure, education and law enforcement.
Also caught in the political crossfire will be traditionally red states such as Texas and Florida, both of which have huge immigrant populations. However, Republican lawmakers in those states will gain in the state legislatures where representation of POC and immigrant constituents will likely go down.
Reducing Congressional representation also has the effect of shifting electoral power and influence away from traditionally Democratic areas, such as big cities and tribal lands, to whiter (and likely Republican-dominated) rural areas.
But even if the administration is telling the truth, Sotomayor continues, “a fraction of a percent of the Nation’s 140 million households amounts to hundreds of thousands of people left uncounted.” And these households are likely to be disproportionately lower-income and less white than the people who are counted.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor was the only one of the eight justices to voice dissent at the decision. The administration, she notes, claims that “over 99 percent of households in 49 States are already accounted for” in the current census count.
But even if the administration is telling the truth, Sotomayor continues, “a fraction of a percent of the Nation’s 140 million households amounts to hundreds of thousands of people left uncounted.” And these households are likely to be disproportionately lower-income and less white than the people who are counted.
A Congressional effort to give the Census more time was passed in the House but the GOP-dominated Senate led by Leader Mitch McConnell refused to even air the Senate companion bill.
Trump's victory over the Census could have long-term impacts beyond politics.
Its important to remember that the Census data represents people and an inaccurate count has real consequences in peoples lives. Of the more than $1.5 trillion in federal funding allocated to the states based on census data, 75 percent goes to Medicare and Medicaid, according to Andrew Reamer, a research professor at George Washington University who studies the use and impact of census data reports the New York Times.Census data, for instance, could play a vital role in tracking the spread of the coronavirus.
Businesses use the data to determine locations, work force, markets and business loans.
“If someone wanted to screw up the American economy, a great way to do it is to screw up the census,” Reamer told the New York Times. “There is no better, quicker way to make sure we’re wasting a lot of money and losing jobs.”
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