COVID-19 origins report inconclusive

ABC GRAPHIC

The report that was supposed to settle the question about the origins of COVID-19 won't end the questioning and probably foster more conspiracy theories and probably won't end  scapegoating AAPI for the existence of the virus.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released an unclassified summary of the Intelligence Community assessment on the origins of the COVID-19 virus Monday that was inconclusive.

"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon," states the report. "Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way. Finally, the IC assesses China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged."

The full classified report is the result of a 90-day investigation by US intelligence agencies requested by President Biden to find out the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While the results of the investigation remain inconclusive, Congressional and community leaders urged against using anti-China rhetoric that continues to fuel anti-Asian violence.

“Critical information about the origins of this pandemic exists in the People’s Republic of China, yet from the beginning, government officials in China have worked to prevent international investigators and members of the global public health community from accessing it,” stated Biden.

“The world deserves answers and I will not rest until we get them,” added the President.

The intelligence agencies offered up conflicting theories:

• Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus—a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China’s officials’ lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other factors. 

• One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses. 

• Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.

• Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.

• The IC—and the global scientific community—lacks clinical samples or a complete understanding of epidemiological data from the earliest COVID-19 cases. If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses.

Meanwhile, the damage done by the Trump administration in blaming China for the spread of the virus continues to have reperecussions throughout the country as racists and xenophobes continue their attacks against Asians.

Last month, amid an historic spike in anti-Asian violence and a heightened political focus on China, the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus (CAPAC) issued messaging guidance to every member of Congress urging them to avoid xenophobic rhetoric that exacerbates the bigotry and racism facing Asian Americans. 

The guidelines urged Congress members to be specific in their criticisms of the Chinese Community Party and their actions in order to avoid spreading vague fears which have been proven to lead to bigoted violence and loss of life in the past. 

“18 months into the pandemic, Asian Americans are still being treated as scapegoats for the COVID-19 virus and continue to report that hate incidents and crimes have had a lasting impact on their mental health, well-being, and even employment status," said CAPAC Chair Rep. Judy Chu.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For more commentary and references, follow me on Twitter @dioknoed.