AAPI Vote 2018: Asian American first-time candidates face long odds

IF WE'RE TO BELIEVE the election polls - and we are still smarting from 2016 - Asian American first-time candidates have a tough row to hoe to win their races today.

Historically, a record number of AAPI candidates are funning for office this year and most likely, the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus will wind up with the most members it has ever had.

Based on fivethirtyeight.com, the analytical website owned by ABC, a majority of AAPI candidates are going against the odds, mostly because they are running against incumbents, which always have the advantage over their opponents.

On the other hand, the incumbent advantage is also helping AAPI politicians who are seeking reelection. Most of them  appear to be shoo-ins for another term. Additionally, some of the first-timers are showing up unexpectedly well.

Democrats have the best chance of capturing the majority in the House of Representatives. Fivethirtyeight gives Democrats a 7 out of 8 chance of capturing the House majority.

Here's a look at some of the key races we've been following:

Sri Preston Kulkami, Texas District 22:Even though old political hands advised him not to waste his time going after the Asian American vote, Kulkami made a concerted effort to reach out to the large diverse Asian American community in his district that includes southern Houston and its suburbs. fivethirdeight gives him a 20% chance of making the district Democratic.  He's behind by 6 points so victory is within reach. If the AAPI communities do come out for him strongly, and Latinos show up, Kulkami could beat the odds, but that's a big if.

Gina Ortiz Jones, Texas District 23:The Filipina American is running in the conservative district that follows the Mexico-Texas border. She started out strong but lost that lead with the Senate hearing for Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to SCOTUS. According to fivethirtyeight, Ortiz Jones has a 2 in 9 chance of victory. The key is, Ortiz Jone could ride on the coattails of Beto O'Rourke who is from El Paso and appears to have activated a lot of first-time voters (people who the pollsters don't pick up). The new voters, plus a Latino surge in the oft-neglected border area could result in a Blue Wave and drown the 6 point advantage held by the GOP incumbent.

Hiral Tipineni, Arizona, District 8Despite doing way better than anyone expected in one of the most-Republican districts in the country, she appears to be falling short of an upset victory. Fivethirtyeight gives her a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Behind by 5 points, she has made it a closer race than expected. The X-factor is if she has been able to convince a lot of the solidly Republican senior citizen voters living in retirement in her district that their  Social Security and Medicare benefits are at risk of Trump and the GOP maintains their majority in Congress.

Andy Kim, New Jersey, District 3It's hard to predict this one. This race is a virtual tie with both candidates capturing about 49% of the votes with a very slight tilt towards Kim. In the closing days of the campaign, Republican Tom McArthur resorted to racist ads with the general theme of "othering" Kim -- he's not one of us" even though Kim was raised in the south Jersey district. If elected, Kim could be the first Korean American in the House.

TJ Cox, California, District 21Although Cox is given only a 1 in 5 chance of beating the Republican incumbent, he's only 7 points behind, a not so insurmountable advantage. If the so-called Blue Wave sweeps across the Midterms, Cox, a Filipino American, could pull off an upset.

Andrew Janz, California, District 22Janz has never run for an elected office before and his opponent, Devin Nunes has been in office since 2004. Yet, the Thai American candidate has given Nunes a real challenge, something he hasn't had since he was initially elected. Because Nunes is a high-profile Republican, seen as Trump's biggest defenders in the House, Janz has received some attention in the David vs. Goliath metaphore. Fivethirtyeight 1 in 20 chance of beating the incumbent who leads by 9 points.

Young Kim, California, District 39Kim, a Republican, and her Democratic rival Gil Cisneros are in a toss-up district with Cisneros leading Kim by a slim 1-point margin. In historically conservative Orange County, Kim could upset Cisneros if he can hold onto the Asian American vote but the diverse AAPI community is about evenly split between the two opponents. Cisneros has hired a host of bilingual Asian American staff to help him make inroads in this crucial electorate. If elected Kim could make history as the first Korean American congress member

With the larger than expected turnout for early voting, many of the polls, which were taken last week, don't reflect the last few days. A few points one way or the other can make a world of difference in some of these close races.

The only poll that matters now is the one that takes place today November 6.
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