Will Trump replace Pence with Nikki Haley?

SCREEN CAPTURE

Donald Trump praised Nikki Haley as she left the office of US Ambassador to the United Nations.

OPINION

Donald Trump is down in the polls and down in the dumps. He knows it. He needs to do something pretty spectacular to even things up with the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Enter Nikki Haley. She's been pretty quiet since she resigned as the UN Ambassador a year ago. But recently, the former governor of South Carolina has begun to raise her political profile once again with her apparent "groveling" to Donald Trump.

On Friday, Haley said she was “proud of the selfless leadership” the president had shown in nixing the large-scale in-person GOP convention that was scheduled next month in Jacksonville, Florida.

Trump “has a great story to tell on how he turned our economy & foreign policy around,” Haley continued. “We look forward to sharing it in the next 100 days!”

Her unsolicited, unexpected lavish praise of Trump has resurrected rumors that she might be a potential replacement for Vice President Mike Pence on the 2020 GOP ticket. Trump has denied the rumors.

Pence has been a loyal soldier -- steady and reliable -- but he lacks the pizzazz that would help energize the GOP ticket, not to mention, provide the show-business element that Trump, a former reality show host, likes.

While all the pundits' and media's attention has been on Biden's choice for a running mate, Trump is looking to turn the spotlight back on him by doing the unexpected.

In a FiveThirtyEight podcast that included Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Perry Bacon Jr., the panel speculated what Team Trump could do to turn it all around, a switch in running mates was the one that made the most sense to them.

Haley replacing Pence would be a game-changer. Before Haley left the Trump team, an April 2018 Quinnipiac poll showed that Haley was one of the most popular members of Trump's foreign policy team. She garnered a net approval rating of +46, while the president's net approval rating was a lowly -15%.

The same poll also showed that Haley had a positive approval rating of +56% among Republican, +32% among Democrats, +44% among independents, +50% among men, +42% among women, +11% among Blacks, +47% among Latinos and +15% among youth. These figures are fantastic and provides a good argument for a Trump-Haley ticket.

By naming a person of color, with foreign policy experience -- Trump could upstage his Democratic rival and counter whatever buzz and excitement Biden's choice would generate. And like Biden's pick, the vice presidential office holder would be younger at age 48, that would counteract people concerned about Trump's advanced age, 77.

Pence, as previously mentioned, is a good soldier. If Trump chooses to replace him he would likely accept the decision. Pence and his religious conservative base would prefer Trump in the White House, even with his questionable Christian credentials, than a Democrat. Haley converted to Christianity in 1997 but attends Sikh ceremonies a couple times a year.

If need be, a departing Pence would fall on his sword and take the blame for the administration's feeble response to the coronavirus pandemic, in hopes of removing that albatross from Trump's campaign if it means keeping a Democrat -- a left of center one, at that -- out of the Oval Office.

Trump's so down in the polls, he's got nothing to lose and with his tendency to rely on his "gut" instinct, he might be open to the advice given to John McCain in 2008 about choosing Sarah Palin as his running mate who was rated “high risk (and potentially) high reward.” In McCain's case, a poorly vetted Palin proved to be a disaster.

Haley is less a risk than Palin, who was not well known before McCain's selection. Her conservative credentials are solid and the fact that she was the first Republican to take down the Confederate flag from in front of South Carolina's Capitol would help mollify the qualms of moderate Republicans who want their party to distance themselves from Trump's white supremacist supporters and stem the steady flow of suburban housewives that Trump has alienated.

Then there is the India factor. 

Haley has natural links to India with her parents having emigrated to the US in the 1960s from Punjab. She has often pointed out that India is an example of a free government and recently even applauded New Delhi’s decision to ban 59 Chinese applications and for standing up to China.

Picking Haley would also be in line with current Republican strategy to woo Indian Americans away from other Asian Americans who have moved towards the Democrats in recent election cycles. Trump doesn't need to win over Asian Americans 100%, but he could weaken that community's impact in key Congressional districts around the county.

If Haley was named Trump's vice president, there is good chance that both vice president candidates from the Democrats and Republicans could be Indian American if Biden picks Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. Harris is considered a frontrunner in the Democrats' veep sweepstakes.

If that were to occur, the sight of two Indian American women on the same debate stage, would be one more history-making moment in an election year full of historic firsts and which is already deemed to be one of the most important elections in the last half-century.