Will the next Pope be a Filipino?

The late Pope Francis, left, and Cardinal Luis Tagle had a close friendship.

ANALYSIS

With the death of Pope Francis on April 21, the world's 1.4 billion Roman Catholics are wondering who the next Pope will be. A Cardinal from the Philippines as a top contender to assume the Papacy, is on the edge of history. 

Immediately after the late Pope Francis' death on April 21, oddsmakers gave Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, the edge. The former Archbishop of Manila is considered one of the frontrunners  for the Papacy. Tagle's name was brought up in 2013  when the College of Cardinals elected Pope Francis from Argentina. This time, Tagle is currently the betting favorite at 3:1 odds, according to some oddsmakers. 

With 80% of the current College of Cardinals appointed by the late Pope, the College might decide that the next Pope should carry on the legacy of Pope Francis, who many labeled a "progressive." As the first Latin American pope, Frances, known as the People's Pope, brought significant changes during his time as Pope emphasizing  social justice, environmental issues and a more forgiving and more inclusive Church. Sometimes called the "Asian Francis," Tagle could continue the late Pope's legacy.

There are those cardinals, especially from from Italy, who believe the Papacy should  select a European for the Papacy. "Some 213 of the previous 266 popes have been Italian and even though there has not been an Italian pope in 40 years, the pivot of the upper echelons of the Church away from Italy and Europe may mean there may not be another for now," writes the BBC.

There is a strong movement for picking someone from outside of Europe where the number of practicing Catholics is diminishing. The Church is growing rapidly in Africa. The Church in Latin America might need bolstering as it finds itself in competition from Evangelical Christians for followers. An American Pope could also strengthen the Catholic Church where attendance at Sunday mass has fallen in the past several decades. 

Filipino Catholicism

The Philippines is the only Asian country where Catholicism is thriving with 80% of its 115 million Filipinos baptized as Catholics. Pope Francis increased the number of Cardinals for the Philippines from one to five, three of whom are eligible to vote in the upcoming conclave. The other two are over 80 years old, therefore ineligible to cast a ballot.

Picking a Filipino as Pope would send a strong message throughout the world of a religion that truly is a universal church with doors open to more diversity in the pews.

Few countries have the religious fervor as the Philippines where it is not uncommon to see people stop what they are doing to attend a noontime Mass in a shopping mall, where some Filipino Catholics literally crucify themselves to demonstrate how devourt they are and he celebration of Christmas starts in September and lasts to January.

The Philippines made history on April 27, Divine Mercy Sunday, by becoming the first nation in the world to consecrate itself and its 90 million Catholics to Jesus through divine mercy. Some see this historic act as a lind of "lobbying" effort on Tagle's behalf

Tagle played host to Francis during the pope's 2015 visit to the Philippines. The combination of the two men together was effectively the Catholic Church's version of a rock star concert. Francis' final Mass in Manila drew more than 6 million Catholics in what is widely viewed as the largest papal event in history.

Tagle is considered a moderate who could bridge the gap between the conservative Cardinals who want to return to a Latin mass and strict adherance to conservative dogma and the more "progressive" Cardinals from America who want to open up the Church and more leniency for those Catholics who have fallen away from Church because of its perceived intolerance towards, LGBTQ, women as priests and divorce.

A word of caution: using the terms "progressive," "conservative" and "moderate" in the context of the College could be misleading. A Pope's perceived progressive positions could still be considered conservative in the context of the United States' culture wars. In other words, whether a conservative, a moderate or progressive picked as Pope, don't expect the new pope to change the Church's views on abortion and the beginning of life.

The 'Asian Francis'

Tagle's apparent "moderate" positions on social issues and an expresed sympathy for migrants are values that he shares with the late pope.

In an earlier speech Tagle delivered a message that could have been coming from Pope Francis: "How many factory workers are being denied the right wages for the god of profit? How many trees are being sacrificed to the god of 'progress'? How many poor people are being sacrificed to the god of greed?"

In the past, the Filipino Cardinal has called for the Church to reassess its "severe" stance towards gay people, divorcees and single mothers, saying past harshness had done lasting harm and drove people away from the Church. He has said that each individual deserved compassion and respect.

When he was still archbishop of Manila, Tagle criticized the bloody war on drugs waged by Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ president at the time. At the time, over 7,000 people were killed by vigilantes and authorities.

“We cannot allow the destruction of lives to become normal. We cannot govern the nation by killing,” Tagle said in a pastoral letter in 2017.

Though Tagle is fully capable of the task of being leader of the world's Catholics, like most individuals of Filiipino descent, he must overcome inherent biases and stereotypes held by other people.

Cardinals are human and as such, they are susceptible to all the flaws and weaknesses of ordinary humans as the recent sex abuse scandals that have rocked the Church has shown us. That includes the dealing with the inherent racial bias that causes people to underestimate  the leadership capabilities of Filipinos. Some question if Tagle is too humble and too self-effacing. They question if he is tough enough to wrangle the politics of the Vatican and the intricacies of managing a worldwide Church with its diverse needs and problems.

But the late Pope saw something in the Fililpino Cardinal. In recent years, Tagle has spent more time at the Vatican, getting to know the Cardinals and other prelates across the globe. He been deeply involved as the Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization, sometimes referrred to as "the Red Pope," overseeing promotions withn the church and the evangelic strategies in the developing world;  and as the President of Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious. 

As an act of faith in Tagle's capabilities, the late Pope Francis appointed the Filipino Cardinal to oversee Vatican City’s administrative functions during the papal vacancy. Tagle and two other cardinals have been named to be part of the “Particular Congregation” — the rotating post tasked with assisting the "Camerlengo" (chamberlain) — during the pre-conclave meeting of all College of Cardinals members also known as the fifth General Congregation, on Monday.

Besides Luis Tagle, center, the Cardinals are considering Fridolin Ambongo, right,
and Pietro Parolin, left.

However, Tagle record is not without flaws. As president of Caritas Internationalis, the world’s second-largest charitable association, from 2015 until 2022,Tagle and the rest of the leadership team were removed by Francis after a Vatican-led audit found “deficiencies” in management and procedures.

Other candidates for Pope

To be sure, there are others being considered for the post. There is a strong belief that after12 years under Pope Francis, considered a Vatican outsider, it is time to return the Church to Europe. Italy's Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Pope Francis' secretary of state, was given 4:1 odds in the days immediately after Francis passed away.

However, since Francis became Pope, the 54 European Cardinals no longer have the majority of votes. Most of Francis new Cardinals come from Africa and Latin America. and Asia.

Since the late Pope's funeral conservative Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, the 65-year-old archbishop of Kinshasa has emerged as another favorite for the Papacy. Ambonggo would be the first Pope from Africa, where the Catholic Church has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. In addition, since the last conclave when Francis was elected, there are now 18 Cardinals from Africa.

Many of the members of the College of Cardinals have never met each other but, make no mistake, ever since Pope Francis died April 21, in the gardens,,, hallways and meeting rooms of the Vatican, the select group of prelates have been lobbying for their favorites.

The closed-door conclave that is convened to elect a new pope is set for May 7, when the 138 cardinals will meet for morning Mass at St. Peter's Basilica with the purpose of praying for the wisdom needed to choose the next pope. They will then proceed to the Sistine Chapel when the doors will be closed behind them and the Cardinals will give up their cell phones. and voting. Four rounds of voting take place every day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote.

Thousands of the Catholic faithful will wait for a new Pope to be named in St. Peter's Square. 

Catholics and visitors will wait in St. Peter's Square to watch for the signal for election results: At the end of the day, black smoke from the chapel's chimney signals an unsuccessful vote; white smoke means a new pope has been chosen.

in a 2018 interview, Tagle said: “If I were God, I would not choose me to be a bishop or a cardinal."

“But since I’m not God, God sees something in me probably that I don’t see in myself and I just have to trust God’s knowledge of me.”

A decade ago Tagle was asked how he viewed suggestions he could be the next Pope," in his typical self-effacing manner,Tagle  replied: "I treat it like a joke! It's funny."

Some Cardinals will see Tagle's humility as a weakness when they want toughness in the new Catholic leader; others will see the same quality reflective of the late Pope Frances. 

Despite his detractors,Tagle remains a figure of global stature—a bridge between continents, a voice from the unheard, and a contender for the Papacy as the Church looks toward the future.

EDITOR'S NOTE: For additional commentary, news and views from an AANHPI perspective, follow me on Threads, on X or at the blog Views From the Edge.