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Vice President Kamala Harris endorses Rob Bonta for California's Attorney General.TWITTER / ROB BONTA |
If Vice President Kamala Harris intends to run for President, she has some work to do. Surprisingly, a new survey suggests that California's Asian Americans are lukewarm in their support for Harris' potential candidacy for leader of the free world.
On the question of Harris’s possible nomination by the Democratic Party, there is interesting variation among ethnic subgroups. Indian-origin (52%) and Japanese-origin (51%) respondents express the greatest degree of support for Harris if she were the 2024 Democratic nominee.
In fact, California-born Harris ranked sixth among Democrats who might be in possible candidates for President if President Biden does not run in 2024 or 2028. Being of Indian heritage does not seem to give her an advantage among Asian American voters finishing behind Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigeig and progressive Rep. Alexandra Ocasio Cortez.
A new Carnegie-YouGov poll reveals the political views of Asian American voters in California—one of the fastest-growing groups of voters in the nation’s largest state. Asian Americans make up 16% of the state's total population and about the same, 15.3%, of California's voters.
A new Carnegie-YouGov poll reveals the political views of Asian American voters in California—one of the fastest-growing groups of voters in the nation’s largest state. Asian Americans make up 16% of the state's total population and about the same, 15.3%, of California's voters.
Given Harris’s deep California roots nurtured in her campaigns for San Francisco's District Attorney, the state's Attorney General and as a US Senator, the findings should serve as an indication of her support from a community that should be supporting a fellow Asian American more strongly and a community that is starting to flex its political muscle.
When the survey asks whether respondents would support her as the Democratic presidential nominee in the 2024 general election. Of the total citizen sample, 42% indicate they would support her, while 37% say they would not.
A sizable share, 21% of all respondents, are unsure how they would vote if Harris were the nominee. These numbers suggest that Harris is badly underperforming the generic ballot considering Democrats hold a 51–17% advantage over the Republicans.
On the question of Harris’s possible nomination by the Democratic Party, there is interesting variation among ethnic subgroups. Indian-origin (52%) and Japanese-origin (51%) respondents express the greatest degree of support for Harris if she were the 2024 Democratic nominee.
A plurality of Chinese (42%) and Filipinos (45%), the two largest Asian American subgroups in the state, the respondents see her a generally favorable light. However, there is less support from Koreans, Vietnamese, and respondents from smaller ethnic groups, with only 33% to 35% of respondents from these groups inclined to support a Harris nomination.
Among respondents willing to support Harris as the nominee in 2024, it is not Harris herself, but rather her status as the Democratic nominee that most attracts supporters:
- 32% of respondents to this question say they would support whoever the Democratic nominee is, whether that be Harris or someone else.
- 20% indicate they would support her because they would like to see a president with Harris’s personal background (as someone who is African American, Asian American, Indian American, and a woman).
- 15% report they would support Harris due to her experience,
- 13% value her leadership and personality, and
- 12% agree with where Harris stands on the issues.
- 6% responded that Harris represents Asian American interests,
- 2% specify another reason.
Among those who would not support Harris in 2024, the most popular response for their reasoning—selected by 30% of respondents—is that “Harris does not have the leadership or personality needed to serve as president,” as the survey item put it\.
Another 20% report that they disagree with where Harris stands on the issues, and 18% do not think she has the requisite experience to serve as president.
In addition, 11% would not support any Democratic nominee, 9% believe she does not represent Asian American interests, and 7% report she places too much emphasis on her personal identity. A total of 5% provide another reason for not supporting her.
POLITICAL LEANINGS
In line with their partisan identification and ideological self-placement, Asian Americans in California overwhelmingly intend to vote for Democrats this November favoring incumbent Gavin Newsom for Governor, Padilla for US Senate and most the House Representatives.
Researchers caution that the results of their study shouldn't be extrapolated to represent the broad and diverse Asian American community. Because it drew its respondents from YouGov sources, it surveyed mostly US citizens and only English-speakers.
The survey is the first in a series of articles that will explore the political and social preferences of Asian Americans in the Golden State.
Future pieces in the series will explore other topics of relevance to the Asian American community in California, such as policy priorities, identity and discrimination, foreign policy, and civic and political engagement.
Another 20% report that they disagree with where Harris stands on the issues, and 18% do not think she has the requisite experience to serve as president.
In addition, 11% would not support any Democratic nominee, 9% believe she does not represent Asian American interests, and 7% report she places too much emphasis on her personal identity. A total of 5% provide another reason for not supporting her.
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POLITICAL LEANINGS
The good news for the Democrats according to the Carnegie survey is that the Asian American electorate reflects earlier polls that show the Asian American community, 48%, leaning heavily towards the Democratic Party despite recent GOP efforts to sway the same community to their radical right views.
Only 17% of respondents identify with the Republican Party, while more than one quarter (27%) identify as independents. A total of 7% of the sample are not sure about their partisan affiliation, while 1% identify with another, smaller political party.
Finally, there is a discernible gender skew in the data: 53% of female respondents report identifying as Democrats compared to 44% of males.
Only 17% of respondents identify with the Republican Party, while more than one quarter (27%) identify as independents. A total of 7% of the sample are not sure about their partisan affiliation, while 1% identify with another, smaller political party.
Finally, there is a discernible gender skew in the data: 53% of female respondents report identifying as Democrats compared to 44% of males.
A 54% share of respondents plan to vote fo Newsom. Brian Dahle, the Republican challenger, lags far behind with 16% of the vote. Meanwhile, 12% of respondents do not intend to vote, despite being eligible to do so, while 17% are still undecided.
However, the Carnegie-YouGov survey responses of California's Asian Americans roughly reflect similar findings of earlier polls and presents a good picture of the political preferences of Asian Americans prior to the Nov. 8 election day.
Future pieces in the series will explore other topics of relevance to the Asian American community in California, such as policy priorities, identity and discrimination, foreign policy, and civic and political engagement.
EDITOR'S NOTE: For additional commentary, news and views from an AANHPI perspective, follow @DioknoEd on Twitter.
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