Proposition 16: Tight battle for California's affirmative action measure

Support for Proposition 16 has rallied dramatically over the last week much to the relief of the supporters of the measure, that would return affirmative action to California.

According to a daily tracking poll conducted by David Binder Research in 600 interviews over three days this week, 45% of California voters say they support the measure to level the playing field by ending California’s ban on affirmative action, tied with 45% who say they oppose it with 10% undecided 

That's good news for the measure's supporters. A PPIC poll released last month showed that among likely voters, 31% would vote yes and 47% would vote no, with one in five (22%) undecided.

The new approval numbers represent a significant increase in support from earlier surveys and shows a clear path to victory for the ballot measure.

As of Wednesday, 19% of ballots issued across the state have been returned. Among survey respondents who have already voted, 59% say they support Prop. 16 compared to 41% who oppose it. 

“This new survey proves that as voters learn that Prop. 16 is about combatting discrimination, they support it. And it shows without a doubt that we can win this fight for racial and gender equality,” said Andy Wong, Campaign Manager for Yes on 16. “We’ve said from the beginning that our biggest hurdle is the intentionally misleading language that the architects of California’s ban on affirmative action put in our state Constitution.” 

The shifts in support suggest that the campaign is now breaking through, despite a crowded news environment dominated by a historic presidential election and unprecedented pandemic––and despite competing for airtime with 11 other ballot measures that have raised more than $650 million combined. 

Affirmative action programs have been proven to level the playing field and create opportunities for women and people of color in education, jobs, promotions, and government contracts––a message that is clearly resonating with California voters. 

“The ballot language is confusing, plain and simple. But when voters fill out their ballots, they are not just looking at that language. They’re consulting local newspapers, conducting research, and learning that Prop 16 is supported by trusted leaders like Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, the ACLU, Black Lives Matter, and many more,” Wong added.

Supporters of Prop 16 underscore its critical role in addressing systematic inequality that continues to place women and racial minorities at a disadvantage in hiring, contracting, and university admissions. Opponents hold an entirely different view. Rather than seeing Prop 16 as a response to discrimination, opponents believe that it would cause more discrimination by privileging race, ethnicity, and gender over merit.

You would think that well-paid writers of the measure could have written the ballot language by avoiding the confusing language of Proposition 209 that banned affirmative action in California, one of only eight states that ban the policy that opens doors to those groups -- Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, Pacific Islanders and Native Americans -- who have historically been denied opportunities in employment and education.

Unfortunately, the authors of the proposition repeated 209's misleading language, which could explain why the measure has had difficulty gaining traction in the public's eye.

In striking contrast to Whites and Latinos, Asian Americans are more likely to support than oppose Prop. 16, according to results from the 2020 Asian American Voter Survey by AAPI Data, APIA Vote, and Asian Americans Advancing Justice AAJC.

Prop. 16 has dominated editorial board endorsements across the state, earning support from the Los Angeles Times, San Francisco Chronicle, San Diego Union-Tribune, Mercury News, East Bay Times, Sacramento Bee, Fresno Bee, Modesto Bee, Santa Cruz Sentinel, Santa Rosa Press Democrat, Desert Sun, Chico Enterprise Record, Bay Area Reporter, Sing Tao Daily, Los Angeles Sentinel, San Diego Voice and Viewpoint, San Francisco Sun Reporter, Sacramento Observer, Black Voice News, and La Opinión.

“We’ve been counted out at every stage of the process, but we know that Californians are ready to stand up against systemic racism and gender discrimination. And we are confident that as voters continue to learn more about how Prop. 16 levels the playing field for women and people of color they will continue to come over to our side,” Wong said.

To view the full polling memo from David Binder Research, click here.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A word of caution, this is news sprinkled with opinion. Readers are encouraged to seek multiple news sources to formulate their own positions.