Sunday, April 14, 2019

Sunday Read: Immigrants spurring America's growth and that's good for the country




If Donald Trump's immigration policies were to be put into effect, it could endanger the future of the United States' economic well-being.

Unlike other developed nations, the United States will continue to grow thanks to the continuing influx of immigrants. However,  despite the optimism and youthful vigor provided by the newcomers, the country's population will still get older.
EDITED for clarity, April 16, 2019.
Despite slowing population growth, particularly after 2030, the U.S. population is still expected to grow by 78 million people by 2060, crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058, according to a report from the U.S. Census' 2017 National Population Projections.

Much of the growth for the next several decades will be driven by immigration, which will outpace the number of births. Immigration from Asia and Latin America will be the primary driver of growth, which spells bad news for those whites fearful of losing their dominant position in the U.S.


Despite white worries, this is good news for the country. The U.S. population is slated to increase from 324 million in 2017 to 390 million in 2050.

The U.S. population is slated to increase from 324 million in 2017 to 390 million in 2050., says Harvard professor Hal Brands. 
Concurrently, the retirement of the baby boomers will make America a significantly older society, as the proportion of retirees to working age individuals nearly doubles by 2060.

Immigration and a healthy birth rate will cushion the effects of this shift, and the stresses America faces should not be nearly as severe as those facing its economic rivals, China, Japan and Europe. As a study by the RAND Corporation concludes, “Barring catastrophe, the United States appears likely to have the demographic and economic resources to remain the world’s economic engine through at least 2050.”

America's advantages: high levels of immigration. But if Donald Trump's draconian immigration policies are implemented limiting immigration and making it more difficult to come to the U.S., America's demographic advantage could disappear.

Conversely, rising immigration rates from Asia and Latin America while the white population shrinks, xenophobia and race-based politics could become even more common and more toxic exemplified by Trump and his followers.

If the U.S. is to keep its demographic and economic edge, it will have to find ways of reconciling two competing imperatives: refreshing the population with ambitious immigrants  and calming the fears of whites of losing their loial and economic status thereby preserving social and political stability.


The report focuses on 2030 as a demographic turning point for the United States, but explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic composition of the population from 2020 to 2060.

For white supremacists, the future looks dark, or at least a few shades browner than their preferred color. The non-Hispanic white population is projected to shrink over coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million people in 2060— even as the U.S. population continues to grow.



If that wasn't bad enough for white supremacists, their purity will be diluted even further because the population of people who are Two or More Races is projected to be the fastest growing racial or ethnic group over the next several decades, followed by Asian Americans and Latino Americans.


The causes of their growth are different, however. For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structure of these populations. For Asian Americans, the driving force behind their growth is a high immigration rate.

The report focuses on 2030 as a demographic turning point for the United States, but explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic composition of the population from 2020 to 2060.

Not in the report are the intangibles that immigrants bring: a willingness to work hard, a dream for a better future and a belief that the U.S. can allow and will provide a way for that dream to come true. In other words, the American dream.
__________________________________________________________________________

No comments:

Post a Comment